CBN丨Stable growth highlighted as key task in 2023

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重点提要 

Economists express confidence in economic recovery next year;

China will experience three waves of Covid infections this winter.

中国经济要闻

Facilitating a solid economic recovery with a focus on substantially expanding domestic demand and boosting market confidence will be key priorities for China next year, after a key meeting outlined major policy objectives and plans for the overall improvement of the world's second-largest economy.

The tone-setting Central Economic Work Conference, which concluded on Friday, sent a strong message that reviving the COVID-19-hit economy and bringing GDP growth back to a reasonable range will be a major task of the government, officials and economists said over the weekend.

The country will see a notable economic rebound next year amid a sluggish global economy, while the resumption of life and production order will accelerate in the first half of 2023, Han Wenxiu, senior official with the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs, said at an annual conference of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE) over the weekend, which focused on China's economic development in the coming year.

Han said that preventing and resolving risks in the property market is one of the government's top priorities, as the property sector accounts for about 7 percent of China's GDP while revenue from land sales and property-related taxes account for nearly half of local governments' fiscal income.

Meanwhile, recovery in consumption will be a main growth driver in 2023 as the top leadership has pledged to revive consumption and spur domestic demand, especially in property upgrading, electric vehicles and elderly-care services.

While the economy will likely continue to face strong headwinds and disruptions caused by ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks, economic recovery is expected to accelerate in the second quarter of next year if the ongoing COVID-19 wave peaks in the first quarter.

"We have the confidence, the condition and the ability to promote an overall improvement in our country's economic operation," Han said, adding that optimizing epidemic prevention measures, stock policies and incremental policies as well as the base effect this year should form certain support for next year's economic data and have a significant positive impact on economic recovery and development.

据央视12月16日消息，中央经济工作会议12月15日至16日在北京举行。会议指出，着力扩大国内需求，要把恢复和扩大消费摆在优先位置，多渠道增加城乡居民收入，支持住房改善、新能源汽车、养老服务等消费。

中央经济工作会议要求，明年要坚持稳字当头、稳中求进，继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，加大宏观政策调控力度，加强各类政策协调配合，形成共促高质量发展合力。

会议指出明年经济工作要抓好五个方面重点工作：着力扩大国内需求，加快建设现代化产业体系，切实落实“两个毫不动摇”， 更大力度吸引和利用外资，有效防范化解重大经济金融风险。

当前，总需求不足已成为我国经济运行面临的突出矛盾，如何着力扩大国内需求备受关注。中央财经委员会办公室分管日常工作的副主任韩文秀12月17日在中国国际经济交流中心举办的2022—2023中国经济年会上表示，要把恢复和扩大消费摆在优先位置，多渠道增加城乡居民收入，加快实施“十四五”重大工程，继续发挥出口对经济的支撑作用，同时积极扩大先进技术、重要设备、能源资源等产品的进口等。

关于房地产问题，韩文秀说，“防范化解房地产市场风险是重中之重。”韩文秀说，要扎实做好保交楼、保民生、保稳定各项工作，提供足够的流动性，满足行业合理融资需求，推动行业重组并购，有效防范化解优质头部房企的风险，改善他们的资产负债状况。因城施策，着力改善预期，扩大有效需求，支持刚性和改善性住房需求，鼓励地方政府和金融机构加大保障性租赁住房供给，探索长租房市场建设。坚持“房住不炒”的定位，深入研判房地产市场供求关系和城镇化格局等重大趋势性、结构性变化，抓紧研究中长期治本之策，消除多年来高负债、高杠杆、高周转发展模式的弊端，推动房地产业向新发展模式平稳过渡。

此外，要重视防范化解中小银行、保险公司、信托公司等金融机构的风险，防范化解地方政府债务风险。通过推动高质量发展，从根本上防范化解风险，形成经济和金融的良性循环。

韩文秀表示，我国经济韧性强、潜力大、活力足，长期向好的基本面没有变。从一个完整过程看，优化疫情防控措施对经济运行的影响将产生类似“J曲线效应”，即短期会对经济运行造成扰动，但全年是重大利好，预计明年上半年特别是二季度社会生产生活秩序会加快恢复，经济活力会加速释放。“我们有信心、有条件、有能力推动我国经济运行整体好转。”

Chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Wu Zunyou said Saturday that the Chinese mainland will likely be hit by three more waves of COVID-19 infection in the coming months. Larger cities are already facing the first wave, which began in mid-December and will continue till mid-January. Traveling by migrant workers during the Spring Festival holiday will fuel the second wave and the third wave will occur when these workers return to their workplaces between late February and mid-March. Wu predicted that around 10 to 30 percent of people will get infected this winter, and the fatality rate will range from 0.09 to 0.16 percent.

今冬疫情可能“一峰三波”：12月17日上午，《财经》年会“2023：预测与战略”在北京召开。中国疾控中心流行病学首席专家吴尊友表示，今冬疫情将会“一峰三波”，即从12月中旬到1月中旬将是第一波疫情，第一波以城市为主；第二波是1月下旬到2月中旬，由于春节前的人员流动造成的第二波疫情上升；第三波是2月下旬到3月中旬，春节后返岗返工。这三波疫情构成了今冬的新冠流行峰，持续大概三个月左右。吴尊友预测，今冬新冠感染率大约为10%到30%，病死率大约为0.09%到0.16%。

区域观察

Wuhan in Hubei province, Jinan in Shandong province and several other Chinese cities are increasing their orders of ibuprofen, a drug used to treat fever, as the number of infections of the Covid-19 omicron variant spirals in the country. Wuhan has been ordering three million ibuprofen pills a day from China Resources Hubei Pharmaceutical since Dec. 17, and Jinan put 1.1 million ibuprofen pills on the market on Dec. 16 and Dec. 17. Production in southeastern Zhejiang province has reached 40,000 boxes of ibuprofen a day, the provincial government said yesterday as it pushes drugmakers to hike capacity. 

多地大力保供布洛芬：近日，湖北、山东、浙江等地均在加大保供力度生产布洛芬并投放市场。其中，武汉从12月17日开始连续一周每天按照300万片布洛芬的供应量投放武汉地区，济南宣布110万片布洛芬已投放，浙江表示布洛芬颗粒日产量已达4万盒，宜昌人福表示歇人不歇机，布洛芬片每分钟可生产3800片，合肥、南京、福州等地也在发放含有布洛芬等药品的防疫“健康包”。

The recent wave of Covid-19 infection in Guangzhou is predicted to peak in early January, the city’s health commission told a press conference Monday, as the southern metropolis is strengthening medical resources and response to cope with the upcoming peak. Meanwhile, local producers of medical supplies, such as N95 masks and antigen test kits, are putting all-out effort to ramp up productions, local officials said, adding that authorities have sent out commissioners to monitor production at 84 key manufacturers. 

广州疫情将在明年1月上旬达到高峰：12月19日，在广州市医药物资供应新闻发布会，广州市卫健委副主任张屹表示，预测广州疫情将在2023年1月上旬达到高峰，为此，广州正加强医疗资源储备，提升救治能力，全方位、多层面积极应对即将到来的疫情高峰。会上，广州市工业和信息化局总经济师陈键华介绍，近期该局对84家重点防疫物资生产企业的产能、产量情况进行持续监测。截至12月18日，广州市各类口罩日产能近4000万。抗原检测试剂方面日产能超1000万人份，抗病毒类口服液日产能超300万支，广药集团旗下的21家药品生产企业也正在满负荷生产。在推动生产扩能方面，广州向每家重点企业派出1名驻企特派员，现场协调解决企业在扩产能所急需的证件办理、用工用电、原材料采购等困难问题，推动企业尽快提升日产量。

产业及公司新闻

The ARJ21 aircraft developed by Commercial Aircraft Corp of China (COMAC) was delivered to Indonesian carrier TransNusa, COMAC said Sunday, marking the company's first delivery of the ARJ21 jet to an overseas client.  

国产喷气式支线客机首次“出海”：2022年12月18日，我国自行研制具有完全自主知识产权的喷气式支线客机ARJ21正式交付首家海外客户印尼翎亚航空（TransNusa），这是中国的喷气式客机首次进入海外市场。

The operating ratio of cinemas in the Chinese mainland exceeded 80 percent for two straight days after many regions across the country implemented the new optimized Covid-19 prevention policy, Chinese ticketing platform Maoyan’s data showed, and the box office stood at 146 million yuan. According to Maoyan, Hollywood blockbuster "Avatar: The Way of Water" has grossed almost 400 million yuan on its first weekend of debut. 

全国影院营业率连续两天超八成：据猫眼专业版微博，营业看板显示，截至12月18日12时，12月17日大盘票房1.4亿，营业影院10361家，全国营业率82.86%，全国影院营业率连续两天超80%。据猫眼专业版，截至12月18日20:00，《阿凡达：水之道》首周末内地票房3.96亿元，观影人次676万。 

Shares of China Meheco Group jumped by the daily limit for three consecutive trading days after agreement to import Pfizer's COVID treatment paxlovid. Meheco signed an agreement last Wednesday with Pfizer to import and distribute Paxlovid on the Chinese mainland, which is only available as a prescription drug and covered by the national health insurance, staff at the drugmaker told media Monday, adding that sales of Paxlovid are at a normal level, which should have a small impact to its overall revenue.

中国医药回应经销新冠特效药：12月19日，中国医药今日涨停，录得三连板。12月14日，中国医药公告称，公司与辉瑞公司签订进口分销协议，负责辉瑞公司新冠病毒治疗药物奈玛特韦片/利托那韦片（Paxlovid）在中国大陆市场的进口和经销。中国医药投资者关系部门相关人士称，现在是国家医保在支持，这个药是处方药。上述人士还表示，目前（Paxlovid）销量正常，不会有很大的业绩影响，（营收）占比不是很大。