CBN Friday Special丨Disney’s Avatar 2, a “timely rain” for Ch

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Hello! Welcome to this edition of CBN Friday Special. I’m Stephanie Li.

The long-awaited Hollywood 3D blockbuster “Avatar: The Way of Water”, the sequel to the 2009 hit “Avatar”, is set to hit the big screen in the Chinese mainland today, the same day it opens in most territories, including the US. 

The sequel returns five years after the original movie to the life of Jake Sully, who is living with his newfound family on the moon Pandora. However, a familiar threat returns to finish what was previously started, so Jake must work with his mate Neytiri and the army of the Na'vi race to protect their home.

With a running time of 3 hours and 10 minutes, ticket prices for the new Avatar are more expensive than most of the movies in the market. The average ticket price for the film is about 85 yuan and  it costs 128 yuan for IMAX viewings. Ticket prices in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Haikou, South China’s Hainan Province are among the top three in China. 

Now with the easing of Covid policies in China after three years in the pandemic, the latest James Cameron production appears to have garnered massive appeal in China. 

Box office soon hit 100 million yuan at around 3:30 p.m. today, according to data on movie ticketing platform Maoyan, becoming the second Hollywood blockbuster this year to reach the 100-million-yuan mark on the first day of release since June.

More than 600,000 netizens have added the movie in their “want to watch” lists after the release date was announced, while pre-sales for the movie crossed the 100 million yuan mark in China just three days after tickets became available, and reaching above 150 million yuan as of Wednesday. 

After the June release of US sci-fi action series film “Jurassic World Dominion”, where it earned more than 1 billion yuan ($139.8 million), no Hollywood movie or other overseas films have performed well in China this year. The “Avatar” sequel is one of the few major tent-pole films to be granted access to the world’s largest movie market since the beginning of the pandemic.

After a decade which saw Hollywood viewing Chinese box office as a path to fortune and glory, the rapidly expanding marketplace has provided a boost to overall grosses for their biggest franchise-friendly blockbusters.

The original "Avatar," released in 2009, heavily relied on foreign markets as it went on secure $2.74 billion globally, becoming the highest grossing movie of all time. More than $200 million of that total stemmed from mainland China. 

The film held the title of the world's highest-earning film for 10 years, until is was replaced by a Marvel series – “Avengers: Endgame” in 2019. However, with recent re-releases of the film, it has taken back the crown and currently sits at $2.922 billion.

The release of the blockbuster is well expected to lift up the Chinese film market given its previous success, like a “timely rain” for cinemas suffering from the drought caused by the pandemic, coupled with the lack of Hollywood-approved films that have heavily weighed on China's theatrical ecosystem. 

When the first “Avatar” was introduced to China 13 years ago, millions of Chinese moviegoers crowded into cinemas to see it even though the size of the film market at the time was limited, while now China has the biggest number of cinema screens in the world – 80,000 screens – including more than 700 IMAX theaters.

The success of the original “Avatar” paved the way for Hollywood, with U.S.-made films accounting for as much as 45% of all ticket sales in China in 2012. Hollywood was raking in big bucks in China — a record $3.3 billion in 2017 — as the country expanded the number of movie theaters and helped subsidize moviegoing as an activity for its burgeoning middle class.

“Avatar: The Way of Water” presents a much-needed opportunity, for China to again show that it can generate the kind of box office horsepower that will grab the attention of studios and again make the country an essential destination for their blockbuster films, observers said.

According to data from industry monitor Lighthouse, the Chinese mainland box office only raked in 28.4 billion yuan (including service fees) in the first 11 months this year, falling short by a distance compared with the 64.2 billion yuan box office in 2019.

Content supply also leaves a huge gap. In terms of the number of domestic films released, the average during the 2020-2022 period was about 340, lower than the pre-pandemic level. The number of imported films released has also plummeted to about 50 a year, less than half of the pre-pandemic level.

But what makes the new “Avatar” all the more unique is also the fact that, its screening in China will bring massive benefit to Disney and 20th Century. 

China's market value previously comprised roughly a quarter of the global box office at $9 billion in 2019 and Hollywood studios typically relied on Chinese theaters to ensure films reached $1 billion. China's box office value has decreased greatly following the pandemic. Recent reports place China's current market value at approximately $5 billion for 2022. 

“The Way of Water” will need to earn big in order to succeed, as it was recently reported the James Cameron film was produced on a budget between $350 - $400 million, making it one of the most expensive films ever made. The filmmaker himself previously admitted the “Avatar” sequel is "the worst business case in movie history" and that it needs to become “the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That's your threshold. That's your break even.”

It remains to be seen whether audiences will be as blown away by the sequel’s visuals and whether the 3D technology will be considered as essential for viewing the film and help boost grosses.

Regardless, expectations are sky-high for “Avatar 2,” which was one of the major reasons why Disney acquired 20th Century Fox in 2019. With a third “Avatar” set for release in 2024 and plans by Cameron to make two more films after that, the film needs to gross at least $1 billion for Cameron and Disney’s franchise hopes to be feasible, though Cameron said in a recent interview that he believes the break-even point for the film could be as high as $2 billion.

But, there’re still many factors in play in China, especially with the explosive growth in the everyday Covid tally. Industry insiders predict the Chinese box office for the Avatar sequel to reach 6 billion yuan, if there will still be around 60 percent of cinemas in the country open when the new movie is released.

So far, it appears to be on track to succeed. Recent statistics show “The Way of Water” is on track to earn $150 and $175 million across its opening weekend, which is double what its predecessor took back in 2009. Analysts also predict the film will have a more sustained box office run and may not suffer a major drop in earnings in the weeks following its opening, as is typical for franchise films.

《阿凡达：水之道》12月16日终于中国内地正式上映，寒冬中的线下院线市场久旱得甘霖？

今天下午3点半左右，猫眼专业版数据显示，《阿凡达：水之道》单日票房破亿，成为继2022年6月12日《侏罗纪世界3》后，时隔186天进口电影单日票房再破亿。

12日《阿凡达2》中国首映礼上不少影评人和影迷得以一睹为快，从整体制作来看，《阿凡达2》是一部成熟的商业大片，兼具高规格的特效画面和完整的故事情节，延续了第一部的奇幻风格，也保持了卡梅隆导演的一贯水准。

一流的大片，超高的定价。灯塔专业版数据显示，该片目前平均票价为84.53元，IMAX厅平均票价高达123.48元，六成左右影院的票价在30元至50元的区间，多为普通影厅。

但影迷仍然展示出了强烈的付费欲。截至12月13日22时许，《阿凡达2》的预售票房已破1.5亿元，预售总人次超173万，12月16日（上映首日）的票房占比达到93.6%。目前，不少IMAX影厅的票价已经到了300元以上，最高达到354元。

今年中国院线行业之难无需多言。灯塔数据显示，2022年1~11月，内地票房仅为284亿元（含服务费），而在疫情开始前的2019年，这一数字是642亿元。今年的票房收入接近2014年，但上座率仅5.9%。

《阿凡达：水之道》可以说是“来得早不如来得巧”。

11月底，广州、郑州等地的电影院有序开放。进入12月以来，云南、山东、新疆、北京等地的部分电影院也已经恢复营业。从数据上来看，全国影院营业率在一度跌破40%后开始显著回升。猫眼、灯塔平台数据显示，最近两个月，全国影院营业率震荡走低。其中11月29日，全国营业影院跌至4527家，营业率仅36%，创下今年以来新低。但截至12月4日，影院营业率已逐步回升至约47%，全国营业影院总数达6856家。其中有7个省份影院营业率超过70%，包括海南、浙江、贵州、江苏、广东、安徽、上海。

除了受多轮新冠疫情对渠道端所造成的闭店影响外，内容供给端也显露出巨大缺口。从上映数量来看，虽然2021年由于疫情相对可控，国产电影上映数量有所增长，但2020-2022年期间国产电影平均每年上映数量约为340部，低于疫情前水平。进口电影上映数量也锐减，每年约为50部、不到疫情前一半。

回想2009年《阿凡达》在电影院上映时，可谓盛况空前。13年前，开启“3D电影时代”的《阿凡达》，在首映一个月之后被引进到中国大陆，获得了空前的高票房与口碑双收。并且在之后的10年中都一直稳坐全球票房第一的宝座。如果加上重新以4K技术修复制作的重映版上线之后的票房，至今《阿凡达》仍然是全球影史票房第一。

可以说，《阿凡达》以一己之力，开启了内地电影的超级大片时代，点燃了中国电影上一个黄金时代的火苗。正是从2010年开始，中国电影市场开启大规模的产能建设。短短几年时间，中国电影院数量翻了几倍，银幕数量从2009年的不足5000块，到2016年底超过4万块，超越美国问鼎全球。2021年，中国银幕数量82248块，20年时间增长了44倍。

《阿凡达》的价值并不止体现在商业价值上，它对中国电影工业的发展，同样影响甚大。它让电影行业明白了大制作、大IP的价值。《阿凡达》还开启了3D电影元年，大规模的数字3D和数字IMAX影厅，就是在那个时候上马的。有业内人士曾表示，如果没有《阿凡达》，中国电影的院线加速进程可能延缓3-5年。

票房数据也越来越高。2010年，在《阿凡达》的助攻下，中国内地电影总票房101.7亿元，首次破百亿。之后连续高速增长，2018年突破600亿，8年增五倍，2019年达到巅峰状态的642.66亿元。

然而来到2020年，疫情冲击下，中国电影生态仅能勉力维持。现在，防疫政策进入实质性的切换时间，被娱乐行业调整、疫情等因素重击的中国电影市场，即将进入复苏周期的时候，《阿凡达2》又来了。

辉煌战绩在前，从业界到影迷，无不对《阿凡达2》期待值拉满。

当下的中国电影市场，比那个时代更需要一部成功作品的拉动。借助优质的电影作品，让大家回到电影院，先稳住基本盘，才能让行业得到喘息的机会。在此背景下，上百万人打出“想看”的《阿凡达2》，就是一块很好的“他山之石”。如果说当下中国电影市场的复苏需要一剂神药，那么《阿凡达2》很有可能就是能起到关键作用的药引。

同样，迪士尼也在押注《阿凡达2》能为惨淡的业绩翻盘。